# Vale of Glamorgan: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 40% likely. Conservative: 39% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Kanishka Narayan
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 61.5%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 25.3% | 15.2% |
| Conservative | 24.2% | 29.5% |
| Labour | 21.3% | 38.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 13.8% | 7.1% |
| Green | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Lib Dem | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Independent | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Restore Britain | 1.9% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/vale-of-glamorgan), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/vale-of-glamorgan.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)