# Torfaen: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 85% likely. Labour: 14% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Nick Thomas-Symonds
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 49.8%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 31.5% | 22.0% |
| Labour | 23.3% | 42.5% |
| Plaid Cymru | 13.7% | 7.2% |
| Conservative | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| Green | 7.4% | 4.8% |
| Lib Dem | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| Restore Britain | 3.5% | – |
| Independent | 2.9% | 2.9% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/torfaen), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/torfaen.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)