# Thornbury and Yate: election prediction

Lib Dem hold, 48% likely. Conservative: 41% chance.

- Region: South West, England
- MP: Claire Young
- 2024 winner: Lib Dem, turnout 68.3%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Lib Dem | 27.7% | 39.0% |
| Conservative | 27.5% | 33.4% |
| Reform UK | 23.7% | 14.1% |
| Labour | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Green | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Restore Britain | 5.1% | – |
| Independent | 0.5% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/thornbury-and-yate), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/thornbury-and-yate.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)