# Thirsk and Malton: election prediction

Conservative hold, 96% likely. Reform UK: 3% chance.

- Region: Yorkshire and The Humber, England
- MP: Kevin Hollinrake
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 63.5%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 36.2% | 39.2% |
| Reform UK | 24.1% | 18.0% |
| Labour | 17.8% | 24.1% |
| Lib Dem | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| Green | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Restore Britain | 5.7% | – |
| Independent | 1.0% | 1.9% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/thirsk-and-malton), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/thirsk-and-malton.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)