# Stoke-on-Trent South: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 50% likely. Labour: 35% chance.

- Region: West Midlands, England
- MP: Allison Gardner
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 58.5%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 30.1% | 21.6% |
| Labour | 28.0% | 34.7% |
| Conservative | 24.1% | 33.2% |
| Restore Britain | 7.2% | – |
| Green | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Independent | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Lib Dem | 2.8% | 3.9% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/stoke-on-trent-south), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/stoke-on-trent-south.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)