# St Austell and Newquay: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 48% likely. Labour: 46% chance.

- Region: South West, England
- MP: Noah Law
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 61.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 29.6% | 19.7% |
| Labour | 28.8% | 34.1% |
| Conservative | 20.8% | 28.9% |
| Restore Britain | 8.0% | – |
| Green | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Lib Dem | 5.6% | 10.3% |
| Independent | 1.3% | 2.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/st-austell-and-newquay), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/st-austell-and-newquay.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)