# Spen Valley: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 59% likely. Labour: 39% chance.

- Region: Yorkshire and The Humber, England
- MP: Kim Leadbeater
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 56.5%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 31.2% | 24.1% |
| Labour | 29.2% | 39.2% |
| Conservative | 19.0% | 24.0% |
| Restore Britain | 8.3% | – |
| Green | 6.7% | 5.6% |
| Lib Dem | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Independent | 2.0% | 3.7% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/spen-valley), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/spen-valley.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)