# Southampton Itchen: election prediction

Labour hold, 89% likely. Reform UK: 11% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Darren Paffey
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 55.7%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 35.3% | 41.5% |
| Reform UK | 27.0% | 18.0% |
| Conservative | 16.3% | 25.4% |
| Green | 9.9% | 7.3% |
| Restore Britain | 5.3% | – |
| Lib Dem | 4.6% | 7.1% |
| Independent | 1.6% | 0.7% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/southampton-itchen), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/southampton-itchen.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)