# South Derbyshire: election prediction

Labour hold, 70% likely. Reform UK: 24% chance.

- Region: East Midlands, England
- MP: Samantha Niblett
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 62%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 31.8% | 38.8% |
| Reform UK | 27.3% | 19.6% |
| Conservative | 22.1% | 29.7% |
| Green | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Restore Britain | 6.3% | – |
| Lib Dem | 3.9% | 4.7% |
| Independent | 2.1% | 3.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/south-derbyshire), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/south-derbyshire.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)