# South Basildon and East Thurrock: election prediction

Reform UK hold, 98% likely.

- Region: East of England, England
- MP: James McMurdock
- 2024 winner: Reform UK, turnout 54.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 38.2% | 30.8% |
| Labour | 22.0% | 30.5% |
| Conservative | 17.2% | 25.7% |
| Restore Britain | 11.3% | – |
| Green | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Independent | 2.9% | 5.9% |
| Lib Dem | 2.6% | 2.7% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/south-basildon-and-east-thurrock), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/south-basildon-and-east-thurrock.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)