# Runcorn and Helsby: election prediction

Labour hold, 88% likely. Reform UK: 12% chance.

- Region: North West, England
- MP: Sarah Pochin (elected in 2024: Mike Amesbury)
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 59.7%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 38.8% | 52.9% |
| Reform UK | 29.2% | 18.1% |
| Conservative | 11.9% | 16.0% |
| Green | 8.2% | 6.4% |
| Lib Dem | 4.5% | 5.1% |
| Restore Britain | 4.5% | – |
| Independent | 3.0% | 1.4% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/runcorn-and-helsby), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/runcorn-and-helsby.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)