# Rochester and Strood: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 61% likely. Labour: 38% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Lauren Edwards
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 57.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 32.6% | 23.4% |
| Labour | 30.2% | 36.2% |
| Conservative | 18.7% | 29.3% |
| Restore Britain | 7.3% | – |
| Green | 6.6% | 5.7% |
| Lib Dem | 3.1% | 4.4% |
| Independent | 1.5% | 1.0% |

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