# Rhondda and Ogmore: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 84% likely. Labour: 9% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Chris Bryant
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 48.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 34.9% | 26.1% |
| Labour | 24.2% | 47.8% |
| Plaid Cymru | 21.3% | 14.5% |
| Conservative | 5.8% | 5.7% |
| Green | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Restore Britain | 4.5% | – |
| Lib Dem | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Independent | 1.1% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/rhondda-and-ogmore), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/rhondda-and-ogmore.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)