# Paisley and Renfrewshire South: election prediction

SNP gain from Labour, 75% likely. Labour: 25% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Johanna Baxter
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 57.7%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 34.1% | 31.6% |
| Labour | 27.4% | 47.4% |
| Reform UK | 16.5% | 7.2% |
| Green | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| Conservative | 6.5% | 5.4% |
| Lib Dem | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Restore Britain | 2.4% | – |
| Independent | 2.4% | 1.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/paisley-and-renfrewshire-south), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/paisley-and-renfrewshire-south.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)