# Orpington: election prediction

Conservative hold, 93% likely. Reform UK: 6% chance.

- Region: London, England
- MP: Gareth Bacon
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 64.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 36.3% | 38.0% |
| Reform UK | 25.0% | 19.3% |
| Labour | 20.2% | 26.9% |
| Lib Dem | 7.2% | 10.3% |
| Restore Britain | 5.6% | – |
| Green | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Independent | 0.3% | 0.5% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/orpington), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/orpington.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)