# Orkney and Shetland: election prediction

Lib Dem hold, 99% likely.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Alistair Carmichael
- 2024 winner: Lib Dem, turnout 60.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Lib Dem | 39.7% | 55.1% |
| SNP | 19.8% | 17.3% |
| Reform UK | 14.6% | 7.7% |
| Green | 11.0% | 9.9% |
| Labour | 6.3% | 7.2% |
| Conservative | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Restore Britain | 2.0% | – |
| Independent | 1.6% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/orkney-and-shetland), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/orkney-and-shetland.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)