# North Dorset: election prediction

Conservative hold, 90% likely. Reform UK: 6% chance.

- Region: South West, England
- MP: Simon Hoare
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 68.3%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 34.8% | 36.6% |
| Reform UK | 24.4% | 15.9% |
| Lib Dem | 19.0% | 33.5% |
| Labour | 9.3% | 8.8% |
| Green | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| Restore Britain | 5.5% | – |
| Independent | 0.9% | 1.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/north-dorset), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/north-dorset.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)