# North Ayrshire and Arran: election prediction

SNP gain from Labour, 84% likely. Labour: 14% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Irene Campbell
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 58.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 32.9% | 31.4% |
| Labour | 22.6% | 39.8% |
| Reform UK | 19.8% | 8.1% |
| Conservative | 12.1% | 14.1% |
| Green | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Lib Dem | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| Restore Britain | 2.6% | – |
| Independent | 2.2% | 1.1% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/north-ayrshire-and-arran), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/north-ayrshire-and-arran.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)