# Newport West and Islwyn: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 76% likely. Labour: 21% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Ruth Jones
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 55.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 28.7% | 20.4% |
| Labour | 22.8% | 41.5% |
| Plaid Cymru | 15.7% | 8.4% |
| Conservative | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| Green | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Lib Dem | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| Independent | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Restore Britain | 2.7% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/newport-west-and-islwyn), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/newport-west-and-islwyn.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)