# Newcastle-under-Lyme: election prediction

Labour hold, 70% likely. Reform UK: 29% chance.

- Region: West Midlands, England
- MP: Adam Jogee
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 58.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 33.5% | 40.4% |
| Reform UK | 29.6% | 22.4% |
| Conservative | 19.4% | 27.6% |
| Restore Britain | 6.9% | – |
| Green | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| Lib Dem | 3.5% | 5.0% |
| Independent | 0.8% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/newcastle-under-lyme), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/newcastle-under-lyme.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)