# Neath and Swansea East: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 85% likely. Labour: 9% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Carolyn Harris
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 52.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 32.8% | 25.3% |
| Labour | 22.2% | 41.8% |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.4% | 13.3% |
| Conservative | 8.5% | 9.4% |
| Green | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Lib Dem | 4.5% | 5.8% |
| Restore Britain | 3.5% | – |
| Independent | 1.2% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/neath-and-swansea-east), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/neath-and-swansea-east.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)