# Monmouthshire: election prediction

Conservative gain from Labour, 76% likely. Labour: 19% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Catherine Fookes
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 68%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 30.0% | 34.8% |
| Labour | 23.2% | 41.3% |
| Reform UK | 20.9% | 10.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 8.8% | 2.5% |
| Green | 8.0% | 4.6% |
| Lib Dem | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Independent | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Restore Britain | 1.2% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/monmouthshire), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/monmouthshire.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)