# Middlesbrough and Thornaby East: election prediction

Labour hold, 85% likely. Reform UK: 15% chance.

- Region: North East, England
- MP: Andy McDonald
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 45.8%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 35.4% | 47.2% |
| Reform UK | 27.8% | 20.5% |
| Conservative | 13.4% | 17.9% |
| Green | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Restore Britain | 7.1% | – |
| Independent | 4.8% | 6.9% |
| Lib Dem | 2.9% | 3.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/middlesbrough-and-thornaby-east), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/middlesbrough-and-thornaby-east.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)