# Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 79% likely. Labour: 13% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Gerald Jones
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 47.3%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 32.1% | 23.7% |
| Labour | 23.2% | 44.8% |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.9% | 13.5% |
| Conservative | 7.4% | 7.6% |
| Green | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Restore Britain | 3.9% | – |
| Lib Dem | 3.2% | 3.6% |
| Independent | 3.1% | 3.2% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/merthyr-tydfil-and-aberdare), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/merthyr-tydfil-and-aberdare.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)