# Louth and Horncastle: election prediction

Conservative hold, 56% likely. Reform UK: 43% chance.

- Region: East Midlands, England
- MP: Victoria Atkins
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 60.5%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 32.4% | 37.5% |
| Reform UK | 31.4% | 25.7% |
| Labour | 16.0% | 22.5% |
| Restore Britain | 8.4% | – |
| Green | 5.8% | 5.4% |
| Lib Dem | 3.8% | 5.1% |
| Independent | 2.2% | 3.8% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/louth-and-horncastle), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/louth-and-horncastle.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)