# Llanelli: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 62% likely. Plaid Cymru: 38% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Nia Griffith
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 57%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 33.5% | 27.6% |
| Plaid Cymru | 29.9% | 23.3% |
| Labour | 15.0% | 31.3% |
| Conservative | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Green | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| Restore Britain | 3.4% | – |
| Lib Dem | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Independent | 2.0% | 1.5% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/llanelli), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/llanelli.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)