# Hornchurch and Upminster: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Conservative, 65% likely. Conservative: 34% chance.

- Region: London, England
- MP: Julia Lopez
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 62.2%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 33.0% | 28.4% |
| Conservative | 29.4% | 32.5% |
| Labour | 19.0% | 27.6% |
| Restore Britain | 9.5% | – |
| Green | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| Lib Dem | 3.7% | 5.1% |
| Independent | 0.3% | 0.8% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/hornchurch-and-upminster), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/hornchurch-and-upminster.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)