# Hertsmere: election prediction

Conservative hold, 97% likely.

- Region: East of England, England
- MP: Oliver Dowden
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 65.3%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 37.0% | 44.7% |
| Labour | 22.7% | 28.0% |
| Reform UK | 20.8% | 13.7% |
| Green | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| Lib Dem | 7.3% | 7.7% |
| Restore Britain | 2.9% | – |
| Independent | 1.3% | 1.1% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/hertsmere), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/hertsmere.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)