# Henley and Thame: election prediction

Lib Dem hold, 76% likely. Conservative: 24% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Freddie Van Mierlo
- 2024 winner: Lib Dem, turnout 72.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Lib Dem | 35.6% | 45.0% |
| Conservative | 29.1% | 33.2% |
| Reform UK | 16.5% | 9.8% |
| Labour | 8.5% | 6.7% |
| Green | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Restore Britain | 2.1% | – |
| Independent | 1.9% | 1.5% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/henley-and-thame), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/henley-and-thame.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)