# Hazel Grove: election prediction

Lib Dem hold, 84% likely. Reform UK: 7% chance.

- Region: North West, England
- MP: Lisa Smart
- 2024 winner: Lib Dem, turnout 63.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Lib Dem | 30.3% | 37.7% |
| Reform UK | 20.8% | 15.1% |
| Labour | 19.9% | 23.5% |
| Conservative | 18.4% | 19.6% |
| Green | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Restore Britain | 4.1% | – |
| Independent | 0.8% | 0.2% |

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