# Hamble Valley: election prediction

Conservative hold, 93% likely. Reform UK: 5% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Paul Holmes
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 67.9%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 32.8% | 36.4% |
| Reform UK | 22.6% | 15.2% |
| Lib Dem | 17.1% | 27.5% |
| Labour | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| Green | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| Restore Britain | 4.3% | – |
| Independent | 1.0% | 0.3% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/hamble-valley), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/hamble-valley.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)