# Gordon and Buchan: election prediction

SNP gain from Conservative, 54% likely. Conservative: 42% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Harriet Cross
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 63%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 29.4% | 30.9% |
| Conservative | 28.0% | 32.9% |
| Reform UK | 20.8% | 8.9% |
| Lib Dem | 10.4% | 16.7% |
| Labour | 6.3% | 10.7% |
| Restore Britain | 2.6% | – |
| Green | 1.5% | – |
| Independent | 1.1% | – |

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