# Eastleigh: election prediction

Lib Dem hold, 50% likely. Conservative: 37% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Liz Jarvis
- 2024 winner: Lib Dem, turnout 66.3%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Lib Dem | 26.0% | 34.4% |
| Conservative | 24.9% | 31.1% |
| Reform UK | 22.2% | 13.3% |
| Labour | 14.6% | 15.1% |
| Green | 6.9% | 5.2% |
| Restore Britain | 3.9% | – |
| Independent | 1.5% | 1.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/eastleigh), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/eastleigh.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)