# East Surrey: election prediction

Conservative hold, 88% likely. Reform UK: 9% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Claire Coutinho
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 67.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 31.6% | 35.6% |
| Reform UK | 23.4% | 17.0% |
| Labour | 18.1% | 20.4% |
| Lib Dem | 11.7% | 18.0% |
| Green | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Restore Britain | 4.2% | – |
| Independent | 3.0% | 3.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/east-surrey), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/east-surrey.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)