# Dunfermline and Dollar: election prediction

SNP gain from Labour, 63% likely. Labour: 37% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Graeme Downie
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 61.2%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 30.7% | 27.2% |
| Labour | 27.1% | 45.7% |
| Reform UK | 15.5% | 6.5% |
| Conservative | 8.2% | 7.4% |
| Green | 7.4% | 4.7% |
| Lib Dem | 6.5% | 7.1% |
| Independent | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Restore Britain | 1.9% | – |

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