# Dover and Deal: election prediction

Labour hold, 53% likely. Reform UK: 47% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Mike Tapp
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 62.5%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 32.0% | 39.6% |
| Reform UK | 31.7% | 23.8% |
| Conservative | 15.5% | 21.7% |
| Restore Britain | 7.8% | – |
| Green | 6.7% | 6.5% |
| Lib Dem | 3.9% | 5.4% |
| Independent | 2.5% | 2.9% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/dover-and-deal), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/dover-and-deal.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)