# Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy: election prediction

SNP gain from Labour, 67% likely. Labour: 32% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Melanie Ward
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 56.8%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 30.8% | 28.0% |
| Labour | 26.5% | 45.7% |
| Reform UK | 18.0% | 7.7% |
| Conservative | 8.0% | 7.8% |
| Green | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| Lib Dem | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Independent | 3.6% | 3.1% |
| Restore Britain | 2.6% | – |

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