# Christchurch: election prediction

Conservative hold, 85% likely. Reform UK: 15% chance.

- Region: South West, England
- MP: Christopher Chope
- 2024 winner: Conservative, turnout 66.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Conservative | 34.2% | 35.8% |
| Reform UK | 26.9% | 18.9% |
| Labour | 13.4% | 16.4% |
| Lib Dem | 11.5% | 20.0% |
| Restore Britain | 6.3% | – |
| Green | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Independent | 2.5% | 4.8% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/christchurch), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/christchurch.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)