# Chatham and Aylesford: election prediction

Reform UK gain from Labour, 74% likely. Labour: 25% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Tristan Osborne
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 54.4%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Reform UK | 33.5% | 24.5% |
| Labour | 28.2% | 33.5% |
| Conservative | 18.1% | 28.6% |
| Restore Britain | 8.1% | – |
| Green | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Lib Dem | 3.4% | 5.3% |
| Independent | 2.1% | 2.0% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/chatham-and-aylesford), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/chatham-and-aylesford.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)