# Central Ayrshire: election prediction

SNP gain from Labour, 66% likely. Labour: 30% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Alan Gemmell
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 59.7%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 29.7% | 27.1% |
| Labour | 24.8% | 43.7% |
| Reform UK | 20.3% | 8.3% |
| Conservative | 12.9% | 14.8% |
| Green | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Lib Dem | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Restore Britain | 2.6% | – |
| Independent | 2.3% | 1.2% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/central-ayrshire), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/central-ayrshire.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)