# Carlisle: election prediction

Labour hold, 70% likely. Reform UK: 26% chance.

- Region: North West, England
- MP: Julie Minns
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 59.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 32.3% | 39.4% |
| Reform UK | 28.4% | 20.2% |
| Conservative | 21.2% | 28.1% |
| Restore Britain | 6.6% | – |
| Green | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Lib Dem | 4.8% | 6.5% |
| Independent | 1.4% | 1.6% |

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