# Cardiff West: election prediction

Plaid Cymru gain from Labour, 86% likely. Labour: 10% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Alex Barros-Curtis
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 59.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Plaid Cymru | 28.3% | 21.1% |
| Labour | 19.2% | 36.7% |
| Reform UK | 17.3% | 12.6% |
| Green | 13.0% | 7.1% |
| Conservative | 12.6% | 15.3% |
| Lib Dem | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Independent | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Restore Britain | 1.0% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/cardiff-west), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/cardiff-west.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)