# Cardiff South and Penarth: election prediction

Green gain from Labour, 63% likely. Labour: 34% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Stephen Doughty
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 53.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Green | 26.6% | 14.5% |
| Labour | 23.2% | 44.5% |
| Plaid Cymru | 15.3% | 8.2% |
| Reform UK | 15.2% | 11.5% |
| Conservative | 10.2% | 13.9% |
| Lib Dem | 6.3% | 7.4% |
| Independent | 2.4% | – |
| Restore Britain | 0.7% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/cardiff-south-and-penarth), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/cardiff-south-and-penarth.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)