# Cardiff East: election prediction

Labour hold, 49% likely. Green: 31% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Jo Stevens
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 53.7%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 21.9% | 40.5% |
| Green | 19.6% | 10.0% |
| Reform UK | 17.3% | 12.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 16.8% | 9.1% |
| Lib Dem | 11.9% | 17.2% |
| Conservative | 8.8% | 10.0% |
| Independent | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Restore Britain | 1.0% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/cardiff-east), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/cardiff-east.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)