# Caerphilly: election prediction

Plaid Cymru gain from Labour, 54% likely. Reform UK: 41% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Chris Evans
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 52.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Plaid Cymru | 29.0% | 21.2% |
| Reform UK | 28.3% | 20.3% |
| Labour | 19.2% | 38.0% |
| Conservative | 9.4% | 11.5% |
| Green | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Lib Dem | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| Restore Britain | 3.0% | – |
| Independent | 1.1% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/caerphilly), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/caerphilly.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)