# Caerfyrddin: election prediction

Plaid Cymru hold, 99% likely.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: Ann Davies
- 2024 winner: Plaid Cymru, turnout 61.6%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Plaid Cymru | 39.8% | 34.0% |
| Reform UK | 21.6% | 15.2% |
| Conservative | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| Labour | 11.2% | 24.1% |
| Green | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| Lib Dem | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Independent | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Restore Britain | 1.7% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/caerfyrddin), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/caerfyrddin.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)