# Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: election prediction

Lib Dem hold, 54% likely. Conservative: 29% chance.

- Region: Wales, Wales
- MP: David Chadwick
- 2024 winner: Lib Dem, turnout 63.7%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Lib Dem | 25.8% | 29.5% |
| Conservative | 23.1% | 26.3% |
| Reform UK | 22.6% | 14.1% |
| Labour | 10.4% | 21.3% |
| Plaid Cymru | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Green | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Independent | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Restore Britain | 1.6% | – |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/brecon-radnor-and-cwm-tawe), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/brecon-radnor-and-cwm-tawe.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)