# Birmingham Erdington: election prediction

Labour hold, 74% likely. Reform UK: 26% chance.

- Region: West Midlands, England
- MP: Paulette Hamilton
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 44.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 32.7% | 43.3% |
| Reform UK | 28.4% | 22.7% |
| Conservative | 11.2% | 15.8% |
| Green | 10.4% | 7.2% |
| Independent | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| Restore Britain | 6.6% | – |
| Lib Dem | 2.7% | 3.3% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/birmingham-erdington), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/birmingham-erdington.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)