# Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: election prediction

SNP gain from Labour, 70% likely. Reform UK: 15% chance.

- Region: Scotland, Scotland
- MP: Elaine Stewart
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 58.2%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| SNP | 28.4% | 26.3% |
| Reform UK | 22.5% | 8.7% |
| Labour | 20.3% | 36.5% |
| Conservative | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| Green | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Restore Britain | 2.9% | – |
| Lib Dem | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Independent | 2.0% | 1.2% |

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