# Aylesbury: election prediction

Labour hold, 77% likely. Conservative: 13% chance.

- Region: South East, England
- MP: Laura Kyrke-Smith
- 2024 winner: Labour, turnout 63.1%
- Updated 22 October 2026

| Party | Projected share | 2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Labour | 28.6% | 30.2% |
| Reform UK | 22.1% | 13.5% |
| Conservative | 22.0% | 28.9% |
| Lib Dem | 12.9% | 20.9% |
| Green | 8.5% | 5.2% |
| Restore Britain | 3.4% | – |
| Independent | 2.3% | 1.3% |

[Full page](https://gbelects.com/seat/aylesbury), [JSON](https://gbelects.com/api/seat/aylesbury.json), [all seats](https://gbelects.com/seats.md)